The future flows from here
Our 2023 Integrated
Resource Plan
After more than two years of conversations with thousands of Manitobans like you, we’re proud to share our first-ever Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) — a tool to understand and prepare for our province’s future energy needs.
See what we’ve learned and where we’re headed
See how we plan to provide Energy for Life
Electricity demand in Manitoba could more than double in the next 20 years. Here’s how we’re preparing to meet your changing energy needs.
We have a plan
Electricity demand in our province is growing and we have a limited supply available. New sources of generation could be needed within the next 10 years. We need to be ready for whatever the future brings.
Now is the time to work together to manage this energy transition and shape the energy future for all Manitobans.
What you need to know
Here’s what we’ve learned from the IRP process:
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The energy transition is already underway.
Manitoba is in a good position today thanks to our reliable hydroelectric system that delivers about 97% of our electricity in an average year — virtually emissions-free. -
Our existing supply of hydroelectric power is limited.
We will need to consider diverse options for new electrical energy sources, possibly within the next 10 years. -
Managing this energy transition will be critical.
We need to make sure we can continue to provide safe, reliable, and cost-effective energy for our customers. -
Needed investment in new energy sources will put upward pressure on rates.
This is in addition to investing in the maintenance of our existing energy system. -
New transmission and distribution infrastructure will be required.
We will need to connect new energy resources to our customers. This means even more investment. -
Energy efficiency will be key to a successful transition.
That includes ways to reduce electricity demand at peak times such as cold winter days, by using technologies that use both natural gas and electricity for space heating or programs that shift use of energy from times of high demand to times of lower demand. -
Natural gas will play a role in getting to a low carbon future.
Strategic use of stable, reliable natural gas can help reduce Manitoba’s overall greenhouse gas emissions while mitigating the cost of achieving those reductions. -
Wind generation is a cost-effective potential energy choice.
It must be paired with additional energy resources, because wind isn’t always available and storage technology is still in the early stages of development. -
Making decisions about the energy future will not be easy.
It will require consideration of factors beyond reliability and cost, including climate, economic development and social impacts.
Our road map
The 2023 IRP gives us a road map — a collection of things we have learned, near-term actions, and key indicators, or signposts, that we need to monitor to understand how, and how quickly, the energy landscape is changing.
We will implement the road map immediately. This includes developing specific schedules and plans for the next steps, as well as continuing to ensure they are the right ones to pursue.
Our next steps
Our IRP is helping us identify the near-term actions we will take over the next 5 years, including:
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Actively managing our increasing electricity demand through new technologies and enhanced efficiency.
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Continuing conversations with the energy planning community, our customers, and other interested parties.
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Preparing for further rapid growth in electricity demand, including completing more detailed analyses on potential energy sources and monitoring emerging technologies such as long-term energy storage.
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Developing options to reduce the carbon intensity of natural gas, including looking into ways we can use renewable natural gas and hydrogen in our system.
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Exploring the potential of emerging energy technologies such as carbon capture.
Going forward
The IRP process identified signposts that we will need to monitor to understand the changes that are happening during the energy transition:
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Government actions, policies, and regulations, including those that can influence the supply, demand, and price of energy — and the pace of decarbonization.
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Customer decisions, including why they’re making those decisions.
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Zero emission vehicles, including the factors influencing adoption such as driving range and costs.
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Technologies & markets, including technologies used to produce, deliver, and store energy, and changes in energy markets.
Your voice matters
We can’t take these steps alone. We will continue to work together with Manitobans and the energy planning community to navigate the energy transition — that’s our commitment to you.
Stay in the loop
Sign up for updates on our planning process, including future opportunities to participate.
Learn more about our IRP
An IRP is a tool that utilities use to understand and prepare for future energy needs. Through significant research and discussions with customers, governments, and other interested parties across our province, we studied how the energy transition could impact our natural gas and electricity systems. Then, we built a plan outlining several possible energy futures, or scenarios, along with steps we can take to best monitor and prepare for whatever tomorrow brings.
We are responsible for supplying Manitobans with safe, reliable energy at the lowest possible cost. The energy transition, particularly decarbonization, is increasing demand for electricity — and, we have a limited supply.
Every utility around the world either is, or will be, facing similar challenges as they deal with the energy transition. We must face these challenges head on, and we will use what we’ve learned through the IRP process to plan in advance and make decisions that are in the best interest of all Manitobans.
Our 2023 IRP is the result of two years of work. Through surveys, meetings, workshops and other sessions with customers and interested parties, we engaged over 15,000 people throughout the IRP’s development. We considered a broad range of perspectives to identify factors that could influence Manitoba’s energy needs, then analyzed how those could influence a variety of future scenarios.
Our engagement process
Between fall 2021 and spring 2023, we held 4 rounds of engagement with customers and interested parties to understand their perspectives of future energy needs in Manitoba.
In November 2021 we invited our customers to share their views on electricity and natural gas by completing a survey. Nearly 15,000 of you responded providing valuable insights into your perspectives on future energy choices.
In spring 2022 we continued the conversation with our customers and interested parties about our Integrated Resource Plan. We connected through focused discussions with customers, workshops with specific interested parties and a survey sent to approximately 5,000 email subscribers.
Key inputs & scenarios
Key inputs are the drivers we think will have the most influence on future energy needs. Scenarios are combinations of these key inputs resulting in specific energy scenarios. The videos below describe these important facets to our Integrated Resource Planning and share more information on the process.
What is energy planning?
An explanation of why Manitoba Hydro does energy planning, what Integrated Resource Planning is and how customers will be engaged throughout the process.
Integrated Resource Plan: key inputs
An introduction to the proposed key inputs and a description of how we came up with the list.
Integrated Resource Plan: potential scenarios
A description of why we are looking at scenarios, how we develop scenarios and an introduction to some potential scenarios.
Documents
In fall 2022 we continued the conversation with our customers and interested parties about our Integrated Resource Plan. We connected through workshops with specific interested parties and update emails sent to approximately 5,000 subscribers.
How we use modelling for integrated resource planning
Modelling is the technical work done to simulate the energy system and study our range of future scenarios. These simulations allow us to understand what may happen in the future and what that may mean for meeting our customers’ evolving energy needs. The videos below describe how modelling fits into energy planning and the analysis we are doing to develop our Integrated Resource Plan.
Integrated Resource Plan: Modelling in our energy planning
An explanation of why Manitoba Hydro does energy planning and how discussions with customers and interested parties influenced our modelling work.
Integrated Resource Plan: Energy use in Manitoba
A look at how electricity and natural gas fit into our province’s energy landscape.
Integrated Resource Plan: Our modelling process
An introduction to model inputs and outputs and how they are used to support our analysis.
Initial modelling results
In December 2022, we reached the midway point of our modelling and analysis for the Integrated Resource Plan and began sharing initial results with interested parties. The videos below describe the initial modelling results and observations as well as the next steps to finalize the results.
Integrated Resource Plan: How we’ve used your feedback
An introduction to Manitoba Hydro’s Integrated Resource Plan and how feedback shaped our modelling process.
Integrated Resource Plan: Initial modelling results and observations
A look at two specific inputs – customer electric and natural gas demand projections – and the outputs from the model including resource portfolios, cost and greenhouse gas emissions.
Integrated Resource Plan: Sensitivity analysis and why looking at what-ifs is important
An explanation of our sensitivity analysis and what we’ve learned from exploring how the three prioritized sensitivities affect the model results.
Documents
- Summary of what we heard in round 3 (PDF, 249 KB)
- Questions received throughout round 3 and the answers provided (PDF, 298 KB)
- Read the modelling presentation for more background (PDF, 4 MB);
- Read a short summary of the modelling presentation (PDF, 424 KB);
- Read the key input assumptions for the modelling process (PDF, 595 KB);
- Read preliminary modelling results presentation for more background (PDF, 2.1 MB).
In spring 2023, we connected with our customers and interested parties for our final round of engagement before completing the Integrated Resource Plan report. Workshops were held with specific interested parties and update emails were sent to approximately 5,000 subscribers. We discussed the completed modelling results, and shared the draft road map which included learnings, near-term actions and signposts.
Preliminary outcomes
With the modelling and analysis for the Integrated Resource Plan complete, we began sharing preliminary outcomes with interested parties in April 2023. The videos below provide an update on the modelling and analysis work, the road map and next steps for finalizing the report.
Integrated Resource Plan: How engagement informed development and analysis.
A review of conversations with customers and interested parties throughout development of the plan and how that input was used.
Integrated Resource Plan: Final modelling and analysis results.
A look at updates to modelling and analysis and how feedback from the round 3 engagement process on additional sensitivities was incorporated into that work.
Integrated Resource Plan: The road map, including learnings.
An introduction to the draft road map and the knowledge gained from the planning process.
Integrated Resource Plan: The draft near-term actions and signposts.
An overview of the draft near-term actions we may complete in the next 2 to 5 years, and the government actions, market, technology and customer trends we plan to monitor.
Documents
- Read the preliminary outcomes presentation for more background (PDF, 2.4 MB);
- Review the completed modelling and analysis results (PDF, 3.0 MB).
2023 Integrated Resource Plan document library
Read our report
- 2023 Integrated Resource Plan (PDF, 12 MB).
Appendices
- Appendix 1: Existing system & load (PDF, 1.3 MB);
- Appendix 2: New resource options (PDF, 1.0 MB);
- Appendix 3: Scenario specific inputs (PDF, 1.3 MB);
- Appendix 4: Analysis approach (PDF, 834 KB);
- Appendix 5: Analysis results (PDF, 3.1 MB);
- Appendix 6: Policy landscape (PDF, 398 KB);
- Appendix 7: Summary of engagement process (PDF, 1.0 MB).
Engagement report
- IRP Engagement report (Coming soon).
Contact us
For more information about the Integrated Resource Planning process, email us.