Overall precipitation across the Lake Winnipeg and Churchill River basins has been well below normal for over two years. System inflows remain among the lowest recorded in the past 40 years for this time of year.
Periods of unseasonably warm temperatures throughout the fall have resulted in later than normal freeze-up on the Churchill, Burntwood and Nelson Rivers. This may result in thinner than normal river ice covers for this time of year and sections of the river may remain open later than or more.
Churchill River (Southern Indian Lake to Hudson Bay)
Fall freeze-up on the Lower Churchill River started in mid-November.
Inflow to Southern Indian Lake (SIL) from Saskatchewan remains near record low at about 19,000 cubic feet per second (cfs). Last year it was around 16,000 cfs (40 year record low), well below average for this time of year (35,000 cfs). The water level on SIL is 846.3 ft, below last year’s level of 846.7 ft. The lake level will drop in November as outflows from the Notigi Control Structure are increased. Outflows from SIL at the Missi Falls Control Structure have been low all year in response to Churchill River drought conditions. Current Missi outflows are around 4,300 cfs and will continue around this flow until the second week in December when a reduction to 3,300 cfs is scheduled.
Water levels of the downstream lakes are similar to those experienced in 2024 due to another dry year in the Churchill River Basin. Like last year, water levels of downstream lakes rose in November due to Missi outflow increases in October.
Partridge Breast Lake is 794.7 ft. Same as last year. Northern Indian Lake is 770.7 ft, similar to 2024. Fidler Lake is 753.8 ft, similar to 2024. Billard Lake is 617.1 ft. Same as 2024.
Water level at the CR30 Pumphouse is currently around 16.1 ft. Aside from ice impacts through the freeze-up period, water levels are expected to remain fairly steady for the next few weeks.
Burntwood River
Freeze-up on the Burntwood River started mid-to-late November.
Much of the Churchill River flow is diverted out of SIL through the Churchill River Diversion via the Notigi Control Structure to the Rat and Burntwood rivers. Flows through Notigi have been around 17,500 cfs and are forecasted to rise to around 21,000 cfs by mid-December. Flows are projected to be lower than observed in 2024.
Nelson River
Freeze-up on the Nelson River started in mid-to-late November.
Lake Winnipeg outflow is around 68,000 cfs (around a 1 in 8-year low). In 2024 it was at about 73,000 cfs.
Cross Lake is 679.7 ft. In 2024 it was 680.4 ft. Sipiwesk Lake is 608.6 ft, last year it was 609.4 ft. Split Lake is 545.7 ft. In 2024 it was 547.2 ft.
Water levels on Cross, Sipiwesk and Split Lake will continue to rise through the start of winter due to outflow increases at Jenpeg Generating Station but are expected to be lower than in winter 2024/25.
Due to frequent and unpredictable changes in water levels and flow conditions, the waterways and ice near hydroelectric facilities and water control structures can be dangerous to the public. This is especially true in the areas immediately upstream and downstream of the facilities and control structures.
Manitoba Hydro encourages resource users to use caution on the waterways.
The Outlook is based on a combination of current and forecasted weather data from Environment and Climate Change Canada; recent and historic streamflow conditions based on both federal and Manitoba Hydro data; and Manitoba Hydro regulation models for Reindeer Lake and SIL.
Flows on the Lower Churchill River are influenced by upstream inflows, control structure operations, precipitation, temperatures, and inflows from local tributaries. Conditions can change rapidly if a large snowfall event occurs or ice jamming. Outlook information will be updated as conditions change.
If you have any questions or concerns, please contact:
Andrea Lamboo Miln
Waterway Community Engagement
204-360-3505
WCE@hydro.mb.ca
