Burntwood, Churchill, and Nelson Rivers, spring 2026 #4
Spring water outlook for northern Manitoba Rivers
Map of Churchill and Nelson rivers with control structures and generating stations.
Enlarge image: Map of Churchill and Nelson rivers with control structures and generating stations.
Churchill River and Nelson River Basins
Spring melt is underway and will continue over the next one to two weeks, with higher-than-normal temperatures forecast during this period. In the Burntwood, Churchill, and Nelson River areas, precipitation since October 2025 is near a 1-in-6-year high; however, total precipitation over the past year is at a 1-in-10-year low. Runoff from this winter’s above-average snowfall, combined with near-normal precipitation since April 1, 2026, and lower than normal temperatures, is expected to support recovery from recent severe drought conditions.
Lower Churchill River (Southern Indian Lake to Hudson Bay)
Current inflows from Saskatchewan to Southern Indian Lake (SIL) are peaking at about 60,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) and are expected to begin to decline over the next week. The level of SIL is slightly below average for this time of year at 845 ft and is expected to rise with the spring melt into early June.
Churchill River flows at CR30 are around 100,000 cfs. Outflows through the Missi Control Structure are about 1,700 cfs, which is typical for this time of year, and are expected to remain relatively constant throughout the spring.
Ice breakup in the lower Churchill River is nearly complete. Spring flows are expected to peak around 103,000 cfs near Churchill by the end of May, gradually decline.
Burntwood River
Much of the Churchill River flow is diverted out of SIL through the Churchill River Diversion via the Notigi Control Structure to the Rat and Burntwood rivers. Flows through Notigi are currently about 26,900 cfs and are expected to rise to 34,900 cfs by early to mid- summer.
Nelson River Basin
Nelson River flows are above normal and increasing. Lake Winnipeg is at 713.1 ft, remaining near a 1-in-5-year low level. Water levels on Cross Lake are expected to remain relatively stable at 679.3 ft, as reduced outflow at Jenpeg (to support storage recovery in Lake Winnipeg) offset increases in local inflow from snowmelt. Sipiwesk Lake is currently at 609.1 ft and recently rose during refilling of the Kelsey forebay, which is now full.
Changes in precipitation affect Manitoba Hydro’s operations and water levels across the system. Manitoba Hydro closely monitors water supply conditions across the entire Nelson-Churchill River drainage basin and updates its forecasts and operating plans weekly to ensure adequate energy supply.
Long-term precipitation forecasts are unreliable, and there remains considerable uncertainty in water level projections for the late spring and summer period. Manitoba Hydro will continue to provide spring outlooks for the Lower Churchill, Burntwood and Nelson Rivers in the coming weeks.
The Outlook is based on a combination of current and forecasted weather data from Environment and Climate Change Canada; recent and historic stream flow conditions based on both federal and Manitoba Hydro data; Manitoba Hydro regulation models for Reindeer Lake and SIL; snow surveys conducted by Manitoba Hydro; and snowpack estimates from satellite data.
Note that spring flows depend on how long it takes for snow to melt (for example, warm temperatures will cause a fast melt and higher water flows, while cooler temperatures will cause a slow melt and moderate flows for a longer period of time). Conditions can also change rapidly if a large rainfall or snowfall event occurs. Outlook information will be updated as conditions change.
If you have any questions or concerns, please contact:
Waterway Community Engagement
WCE@hydro.mb.ca
